Building Permits Moving Forward

The BIG question being posed by professionals in the Phoenix housing industry is" When can we expect to see some normalcy in the market"? Let me share with you some historical data on SFD permit activity over the past 50 years for Phoenix MSA.The average number of SFD permits issued per year over the past five decades looks like this:
1960s       5,900
1970s      18,500
1980s      17,000
1990s      26,000
2000s      36,000 (est.)

The first time Phoenix MSA issued more than 30,000 SFD permits in one year was 1978 (30,919), this was not attained again until 1997 (32,232). Phoenix peaked in 2004 for SFD permits issued ( 57,360) and last year, 2008 (11,549), a decline of 80% . 2009 is expected to reach 5,000 at best, which would result in a peak to 2009 for a decline of 91%. Given that Phoenix has never experienced more than 4 consecutive years of double digit growth as measured by permits (SFD). ( '91-27%,'92-36%,'93-23%,'94-22%), when can we expect to see 25,000 permits being issued ?




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